The Miami Dolphins have to this point handed each check thrown their means. The defeated Invoice Belichick’s Patriots in Week 1, stormed again to defeat Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2, and knocked the Tremendous Bowl-favorite Buffalo Payments from the ranks of the unbeaten in Week 3. On Thursday evening, their newest check comes within the type of the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals.
Joe Burrow and Co. are coming off their first win of the season — a laugher in opposition to the New York Jets. They’d beforehand gone 0-2 in opposition to the likes of Mitchell Trubisky’s Pittsburgh Steelers and Cooper Rush’s Dallas Cowboys. So, that is seemingly the hardest opponent they’ll have confronted thus far. That is very true due to the type of protection Miami performs, which has the potential to trigger vital issues for the Bengals.
So, will the Dolphins stay unbeaten? Or will the Bengals hand them their first misplaced of the younger season? We’ll discover out quickly sufficient. Earlier than we break down the matchup, here is how one can watch the sport:
Easy methods to watch
Date: Thursday, Sept. 29 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: PayCor Stadium (Cincinnati)
Stream: Amazon Prime Video
Observe: CBS Sports activities App
Odds: Bengals -4, O/U 47
Featured Recreation | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins
When the Dolphins have the ball
Early this season, the Dolphins are arguably the NFL’s most fascinating offense. New head coach Mike McDaniel was the run-game coordinator in San Francisco and was anticipated to carry over a Kyle Shanahan-style offense that leaned closely on the run and play-action, bootleg passing ideas. Solely a few of that has occurred.
Relatively than being run-heavy, Miami ranks second within the NFL in move price over expectation, in accordance with Tru Media. McDaniel has certainly imported among the Shanahan ideas within the run sport and particularly on play-action, however the Dolphins function out of the shotgun at a a lot increased price and incorporate much more run-pass choice ideas than McDaniel’s former group did — presumably as a result of these are the areas the place Tua Tagovailoa is most snug.
All of that is working fairly properly to this point. The Dolphins at present rank fourth in third-down conversion price and the share of their performs which have gained 10 yards or extra; third in yards per play and success price; second in EPA per play and the share of their drives which have gone three-and-out; and first in factors per drive. They’re spreading defenses razor skinny with all of the pace they will placed on the sector. Tyreek Hill is drawing tons of consideration on each snap. Jaylen Waddle is taking benefit. Each of these gamers are opening broad throwing lanes over the center of the sector.
Nearly the one factor that is not working at a excessive stage is the run sport itself, which is an attention-grabbing growth. Neither Chase Edmonds nor Raheem Mostert has been in a position to actually get on observe to this point. A few of that’s enjoying in opposition to a trio of opponents which are good at stopping the run within the Patriots, Ravens, and Payments. A few of it’s an offensive line that, whereas improved, continues to be below-average. And a few of it’s the operating backs themselves not doing a lot in the way in which of breaking tackles or creating yards after contact.
Regardless of the dearth of dashing success, although, Miami’s play-action passing assault has been elite: Tagovailoa has faked a run on 39.1% of his dropbacks, the second-highest price in soccer. When the Dolphins have gone to a run faux on first down, Tagovailoa has accomplished 19 of 23 passes (82.6%) for 289 yards (12.6 per try). He is taken only one sack on these dropbacks, and he is thrown the ball 20 or extra yards downfield 26.1% of the time. All all of it up and he is recorded the league’s fourth-best EPA per play common on these performs.
The query on this sport is not a lot whether or not the Dolphins can discover a technique to transfer the ball on the bottom, however whether or not Cincinnati’s linebackers and safeties can resist the temptation to come back up and be part of the run match on the performs when the Dolphins are literally throwing the ball. One false step and Hill, Waddle, or each will beat you — both excessive or on the transfer. Up to now, Tagovailoa has proven the flexibility to seek out them in open house with a excessive stage of consistency. Assuming he is beneath middle, the one technique to cease that from taking place is to dominate the sport up entrance and transfer him off his spot as quickly as he hits the highest of his dropback — a feat made more durable attributable to the truth that they’re working so typically out of the gun and subsequently he isn’t taking as many conventional dropbacks.
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When the Bengals have the ball
Cincinnati is coming off its greatest sport of the season, and it is in all probability not a coincidence that after dealing with Cowl-2 on 36.7% of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks in Week 1 in opposition to the Steelers and 50% of his dropbacks in Week 2 in opposition to the Cowboys, the Bengals noticed ONE snap of Cowl-2 in opposition to the Jets in Week 3, in accordance with Tru Media. In these first two video games, Burrow was 25 of 34 for 243 yards, three interceptions and an unimaginable 9 sacks in opposition to Cowl-2. It is price noting that Burrow confronted Cowl-2 on simply 77 dropbacks all of final season, and the unimaginable ramp-up early this yr has seemingly been designed to remove among the “let’s simply throw it as much as Ja’Marr Chase deep down the sideline” stuff that was so profitable for Cincinnati final yr.
The Dolphins have performed Cowl-2 on 14.6% of passing snaps this season, a big improve from final yr’s 7.6% mark. They’ve been primarily a single-high protection group, although, enjoying Cowl-1 or Cowl-3 on 57.5% of snaps. They’ve additionally used Cowl-0 at by far the best price within the NFL — 14.6%. Will probably be attention-grabbing to see how defensive coordinator Josh Boyer balances issues on this matchup. Miami likes to blitz, and will potential overwhelm what has been a severely overmatched Bengals offensive line by doing so. However the Dolphins additionally may not must blitz all that usually to generate strain on Burrow, and leaving extra defenders in protection might permit them to make the most of extra of the two-high stuff that has bothered the Bengals to this point this season.
The choice Boyer makes can seemingly be seen by the prism of second-year security Jevon Holland, who’s an absolute menace all around the subject. On eight pass-rush snaps, Holland has three pressures and 1.5 sacks, per Tru Media. On 129 protection snaps, he has been focused simply 5 instances, permitting three completions for 37 yards and an interception. He is lined up as a real free security most of the time, however in accordance with Professional Soccer Focus, he has additionally dropped down into the field on 21 snaps, taken 17 snaps from the slot and performed alongside the defensive position for 15 snaps. He is a chess piece whose actions can be utilized to dictate what the offense must do on any given snap. His alignment would not sometimes give a lot away, although, as a result of Miami can rotate into any variety of coverages or blitzes irrespective of the place he occurs to be pre-snap.
Taking part in extra two-high seems (pre-snap, if not essentially post-snap) invitations and sometimes entices opponents to run the ball. Cincinnati has been extraordinarily unsuccessful within the run sport to this point this season, checking in thirtieth in yards per carry, EPA per rush and Soccer Outsiders’ rush offense DVOA. Joe Mixon is averaging a dreadful 2.8 yards per tote, with simply 0.91 yards earlier than contact. He is been tackled at or behind the road of scrimmage extra typically (29.3% of his runs) than he has gained 5 yards or extra (26.7%). In different phrases, the offensive line makeover that was presupposed to be a dramatic improve has as a substitute not labored out in any respect. Miami is seventh in rush protection DVOA to this point this season, so it appears no less than considerably unlikely that the Bengals will discover a lot dashing success right here.
As an alternative, the Bengals will seemingly need to rely on Burrow, Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst successful on a person stage to be able to transfer the ball. That group is, in fact, greater than able to doing simply that. Notably with No. 2 nook Byron Jones nonetheless sidelined and Xavien Howard enjoying by a soft-tissue damage, there might be alternatives for that crew to do some harm on the perimeter. The Dolphins did simply drive the Payments to dink and dunk their means down the sector all sport final week and will conceivably do the identical to the Bengals, however it’s price noting that this protection was on the sector for NINETY performs only a few days in the past, and will endure from some fatigue right here.
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Bengals 24
